Bob Gosford reports from Darwin

As I noted earlier this year, 2024 will be a big year for elections.

Yesterday’s issue of the writ kicked off the NT election on Saturday 24 August that will have ramifications for both major parties at a national level – for Labor to retain its electoral dominance; for the LNP coalition to at least take some of that ground before the next Federal election in early 2025.

So, who’s going to win? I don’t know and neither do Malcolm Mackerras nor MIX 104.9’s Katie Woolf, the queen of Darwin morning radio.
Anyone who tells you otherwise is a fool, a liar or both.

Tools used in other jurisdictions—polling and the bookies—are next to useless in the NT as volatile demographics and the tyrannies of disadvantage and distance militate against accurate polling and the framing of useful betting markets.

Three weeks out from polling day though some trends emerge.

However the numbers fall on polling day, the 25 seats up for grabs will be shared by the Australian Labor Party, the Country Liberal Party and a smattering of independents.

Notwithstanding their preaching-to-the-converted slogans and hordes of Yo-Pro trust-funded door-knockers, The Greens won’t win a seat.

Independents will take their usual 3 or 4 seats. The best possible result for the independents—and worst-case scenario for the major parties—would see an independent holding the balance of power in the next NT parliament. That has only happened once before when Paul Henderson’s Labor government fell into minority status in 2009 and was saved by a messy deal with independent member for the rural seat of Nelson, chook farmer, arch conservative and occasional UFO-spotter Gerry Wood.

The recently-emerged Voices of The Top End (VOTE) crew—think grey-haired Teal-lite middle-class professionals—will take a few votes off the Greens and Labor Birkenstock wearers but little else.

Former CLP leader Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance won’t bother the scrutineers this time around, and I can’t see any other pop-up-slash-micro-party party emerging before nominations close next Thursday to pinch a few hundred votes here or there.

Nuh, the only contest worth betting on is between incumbent chief minister Eva Lawler’s ALP and opposition leader Lia Finocchiaro’s CLP.

Neither Lawler nor Finocchiaro are very convincing politicians—both are the wrong leaders at the wrong time, but what-the-hey … when needs must and factions and donors prevail …

Lawler is the home economics teacher of your middle-school nightmares, all snarl/smiles, sensible shoes and Big-W dresses.

When ALP chief minister Michael Gunner fell on his sword in May 2022, by stuff-up or malign in/action the top job went to member for Nightcliff Natasha Fyles, the first time the left faction had taken the top job. The right faction’s Nicole Manison, generally regarded as favourite for the gig, was passed over.

Fyles lasted until she got caught up in share ownership and conflict-of-interest “scandals”—that for mine any other politician would’ve/should’ve/could’ve toughed out—and just before Christmas 2023 she pulled the pin.

Once-jilted bridesmaid Manison was thwarted again.

Lawler prevailed and has adopted a commendably tough stance to the critics and on some key issues—think the Alice Springs curfew, industrial development, fracking etc—that Fyles couldn’t or wouldn’t. Whether it will be enough to get Labor over the line remains to be seen.

Lia Finocchiaro is from the CLP’s just-to-the-right-of-centre city-based Liberal camp. That alignment, combined with her scrubbed-too-clean-for-the-bush looks, an irritatingly squeaky voice, and modest parliamentary performance has resulted in some uncomfortable moments with the CLP’s rural—literally Country—rump.

To her credit, since she took the leadership just before the 2020 election, Finocchiaro has stabilised the CLP’s parliamentary team into a reasonably well-disciplined crew but the CLP has failed to prevail at any election – including four by-elections – since 2016.

A year ago there was pretty solid word on the street that Finocchiaro would be knocked and replaced with one of the several CLP members (all men) who reckoned they were overdue their just rewards.

For whatever reason—maybe Finocchiaro made the plotters an offer they couldn’t refuse, maybe they couldn’t get their act together (not unknown for the CLP) or just maybe wiser party leaders did some head-knocking of their own—Finocchiaro survived.

For mine both Finocchiaro and Lawler lack genuine-ness—unsurprising because they’re both “professional” politicians surrounded by people ever on the look-out for the mis-spoken comment, the too-prying question, the faux pas, the baby-not-kissed, or the interest group not soothed or paid-off with a promise best soon forgotten.

And that’s the problem with this election – there’s been no fun, no tension, no glory, no lofty rhetoric, no tears, no laughter, no (major) fuck ups and not much more than a cigarette paper’s difference between the parties.

Who’ll win the NT election?

I’ve got no fucking idea.